Economic Forecasts

Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive macro and regional forecasts to help clients from various industries assess potential economic outcomes on the performance of businesses and investments.

Our forecasts have a 30-year horizon and are updated monthly to reflect the latest economic data and expectations. Our scenario-driven approach to forecasting begins with our baseline forecast. We define this as the “most likely outcome” based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed. We then develop the basic outlines of our alternative scenarios by running multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of economic outcomes.

Moody's Analytics economic forecasts and scenarios provide the foundation for stress testing, "what if" analyses, and regulatory compliance, enabling you to evaluate the impact of shocks and differing assumptions on the performance of your portfolios and business.

Moody's Analytics produces baseline forecasts and probability-weighted scenarios for 100+ countries and aggregates, as well as regulatory scenarios based on projections provided by governing authorities. Each scenario is fully documented, explaining what might cause a change in the outlook, relative to the baseline. Forecasts and scenarios are updated monthly to reflect the latest economic data and expectations